Is Your Portfolio Prepared for a Recession?

Are you ready for the next recession? Some experts say it’s closer than we think. Which begs the question: Will your portfolio be able to ride out the storm?

During the Great Recession, from 2007 to 2009, the average American’s retirement account dropped by 25 percent. The S&P 500 alone lost half its value. People – especially those close to retirement age – saw decades’ worth of hard work and savings vanish almost instantly. The question we all need to be asking ourselves is what would happen to our current portfolios if another recession hits? How would our lives be impacted? What dreams would we need to put on hold because the market decided to shift?

In truth, many of us are unprepared to answer that question. We’ve been riding the wave of a strong economy for years – so long that we’re overdue for a correction. It’s time to take a good hard look at our portfolios and determine where we might be able to generate solid, recession-resistant returns, independent of market conditions.

Senior Housing

There are lots of things people can scrap during a recession – but care for family members isn’t one of them. Need-based investments are often the most reliable, and there is no greater need right now – or for the foreseeable future – than senior housing. From 2010 to 2060, the 85+ population will more than triple. Studies show some 2 million senior housing units will need to be constructed to meet demand anticipated by 2040 (ASHA). In the past 10 years, senior housing has generated annualized total returns of 14.7% versus 8.1% for apartments and 8.4% for commercial property types in NCREIF’s NPI.

Multi-Family Housing

Many families must move to smaller, more affordable housing in times of economic distress. Throughout the financial crisis and the recovery through spring 2018, the number of owner-occupied households has been stable, while rental households have increased by 8 million. Research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies and Enterprise Community Partners suggests that the rental population in the U.S. will climb by another 4 million in the next decade. Some have even called that estimate conservative. Smart investors could capitalize on this need in a variety of ways, either through direct investment and property management or through equity fund and crowd-funding opportunities.

Self-Storage

It may not be sexy, but it gets the job done. The National Association of REITs (NAREIT) reported that self-storage was the only REIT sector to post a positive total return (5 percent) during the 2008 financial crisis. Why? See multi-family housing above. As families move to smaller, more affordable multi-family units, they need a place to put their stuff. What’s more, studies show owners need to hit just 40-45 percent occupancy to hit the black because overhead is so low on self-storage units. Not a bad deal, even for less savvy investors.

No single investment will make your portfolio recession-proof. As with any investment market, diversification is key. So, as you begin to knuckle down for the recessionary period ahead, begin thinking of how you may incorporate some of the above into your overall investment scheme – be it via private equity fund, REIT, or a direct investment opportunity.

This story first appeared on Seeking Alpha.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *